Leak frequency analysis for hydrogen-based technology using bayesian and frequentist methods

Mahesh Kodoth, Shu Aoyama, Junji Sakamoto, Naoya Kasai, Yehia Khalil, Tadahiro Shibutani, Atsumi Miyake


10 被引用数 (Scopus)


Dealing with hazardous environments such as hydrogen poses considerable risks to property, people, and the environment. Leak frequency analysis is a method of understanding the characteristics of risks at hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs). This paper proposes leak rate estimation using time-based evaluation methods that utilize historical HRS accident information. In addition, leak frequency estimates from another two methods (non-parametric and leak-hole-size) were examined. In the non-parametric approach, the leak frequency is estimated based on a Bayesian update. The results from these three approaches are summarized to understand the trend of leak rate data. The leak rate data from the time-based method displays a similar trend to the leak size based method. However, the non-parametric method tends to be conservative due to high failure observations (new evidences) during the Bayesian update. Finally, the unrevealed leak time was calculated as a function of the leak frequency. The quantitative insights of this study can be used to set performance standards for the availability and reliability in the operation and maintenance of HRSs.

ジャーナルProcess Safety and Environmental Protection
出版ステータスPublished - 4月 2020

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 環境工学
  • 環境化学
  • 化学工学(全般)
  • 安全性、リスク、信頼性、品質管理


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