The contribution of anthropogenic forcings to regional changes in temperature during the last decade

Nikolaos Christidis, Peter A. Stott, Francis W. Zwiers, Hideo Shiogama, Toru Nozawa

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

30 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Regional distributions of the mean annual temperature in the 2000s are computed with and without the effect of anthropogenic influences on the climate in several sub-continental regions. Simulated global patterns of the temperature response to external forcings are regressed against observations using optimal fingerprinting. The global analysis provides constraints which are then used to construct the regional temperature distributions. A similar approach was also employed in previous work, but here the methodology is extended to examine changes in any region, including areas with a poor observational coverage that were omitted in the earlier study. Two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used in the analysis. Anthropogenic forcings are found to have at least quadrupled the likelihood of occurrence of a year warmer than the warmest year since 1900 in 23 out of the 24 regions. The temperature distributions computed with the two models are very similar. While a more detailed assessment of model dependencies remains to be made once additional suitable GCM simulations become available, the present study introduces the statistical methodology and demonstrates its first application. The derived information concerning the effect of human influences on the regional climate is useful for adaptation planning. Moreover, by pre-computing the change in the likelihood of exceeding a temperature threshold over a range of thresholds, this kind of analysis enables a near real-time assessment of the anthropogenic impact on the observed regional temperatures.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1259-1274
Number of pages16
JournalClimate Dynamics
Volume39
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2012
Externally publishedYes

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temperature
general circulation model
methodology
regional climate
climate
simulation
distribution
analysis
effect
planning

Keywords

  • Anthropogenic forcings
  • Detection and attribution
  • Regional temperature

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

The contribution of anthropogenic forcings to regional changes in temperature during the last decade. / Christidis, Nikolaos; Stott, Peter A.; Zwiers, Francis W.; Shiogama, Hideo; Nozawa, Toru.

In: Climate Dynamics, Vol. 39, No. 6, 09.2012, p. 1259-1274.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Christidis, Nikolaos ; Stott, Peter A. ; Zwiers, Francis W. ; Shiogama, Hideo ; Nozawa, Toru. / The contribution of anthropogenic forcings to regional changes in temperature during the last decade. In: Climate Dynamics. 2012 ; Vol. 39, No. 6. pp. 1259-1274.
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