The conditional volatility premium on currency portfolios

Joseph P. Byrne, Ryuta Sakemoto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Our paper examines conditional risk-return relations in a number of currency investment strategies, while modeling economic states using a large number of underlying risk factors. We identify a time-varying relationship between currency returns and volatility risk for most currency portfolios. In particular, value and momentum portfolios present risk-return relationships which switch sign, depending upon economic states. The positive relationship for the value portfolio is associated with “flight to quality” periods and the mean reversion for nominal exchange rates during financial crises. The positive relationship for the momentum portfolio is linked to the US and global business cycles and investors require positive compensation for risk in recessions.

Original languageEnglish
Article number101415
JournalJournal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money
Volume74
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2021

Keywords

  • Conditional factor model
  • Currency carry trade
  • Currency variability
  • Momentum
  • Systematic risk
  • Value

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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