The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Globally

Nabin Sapkota, Waldemar Karwowski, Mohammad Reza Davahli, Awad Al-Juaid, Redha Taiar, Atsuo Murata, Grzegorz Wrobel, Tadeusz Marek

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

In December 2019, China announced the breakout of a new virus identified as coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), which soon grew exponentially and resulted in a global pandemic. Despite strict actions to mitigate the spread of the virus in various countries, COVID-19 resulted in a significant loss of human life in 2020 and early 2021. To better understand the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19, evidence of its chaotic behavior in the US and globally was evaluated. A 0-1 test was used to analyze the time-series data of confirmed daily COVID-19 cases from 1/22/2020 to 12/13/2020. The results show that the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic was chaotic in 55% of the investigated countries. Although the time-series data for the entire US was not chaotic, 39% of individual states displayed chaotic infection spread behavior based on the reported daily cases. Overall, there is evidence of chaotic behavior of the spread of COVID-19 infection worldwide, which adds to the difficulty in controlling and preventing the current pandemic.

Original languageEnglish
Article number9445063
Pages (from-to)80692-80702
Number of pages11
JournalIEEE Access
Volume9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Keywords

  • 0-1 test
  • COVID-19 pandemic
  • Chaotic behavior
  • spread of infections

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science(all)
  • Materials Science(all)
  • Engineering(all)

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