Abstract
To preserve consistency among developed emission scenarios, the scenarios used in climate modeling, and the climate scenarios available for impact research, the pattern scaling technique is useful technique. The basic assumption of pattern scaling is that the spatial response pattern per 1 K increase in the global mean surface air temperature (SAT) (scaling pattern) is the same among emission scenarios, but this assumption requires further validation. We therefore investigated the dependence of the scaling pattern of the annual mean SAT on GHGs emission scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) and the causes of that dependence using the Model for Interdisciplinary research on Climate 5 developed by Japanese research community. In particular, we focused on the relationships of the dependency with effects of aerosols and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. We found significant dependencies of the scaling pattern on emission scenarios at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, with differences of >15 % over parts of East Asia, North America, and Europe. Impact researchers should take into account those dependencies that seriously affect their research. The mid-latitude dependence is caused by differences in sulfate aerosol emissions per 1 K increase in the global mean SAT, and the high-latitude dependence is mainly caused by nonlinear responses of sea ice and ocean heat transport to global warming. Long-term trends in land-use and land-cover changes did not significantly affect the scaling pattern of annual mean SAT, but they might have an effect at different timescales.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 535-546 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Climatic Change |
| Volume | 112 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - May 2012 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Global and Planetary Change
- Atmospheric Science
Cite this
Temperature scaling pattern dependence on representative concentration pathway emission scenarios : A letter. / Ishizaki, Yasuhiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Emori, Seita; Yokohata, Tokuta; Nozawa, Toru; Ogura, Tomoo; Abe, Manabu; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Takahashi, Kiyoshi.
In: Climatic Change, Vol. 112, No. 2, 05.2012, p. 535-546.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Temperature scaling pattern dependence on representative concentration pathway emission scenarios
T2 - A letter
AU - Ishizaki, Yasuhiro
AU - Shiogama, Hideo
AU - Emori, Seita
AU - Yokohata, Tokuta
AU - Nozawa, Toru
AU - Ogura, Tomoo
AU - Abe, Manabu
AU - Yoshimori, Masakazu
AU - Takahashi, Kiyoshi
PY - 2012/5
Y1 - 2012/5
N2 - To preserve consistency among developed emission scenarios, the scenarios used in climate modeling, and the climate scenarios available for impact research, the pattern scaling technique is useful technique. The basic assumption of pattern scaling is that the spatial response pattern per 1 K increase in the global mean surface air temperature (SAT) (scaling pattern) is the same among emission scenarios, but this assumption requires further validation. We therefore investigated the dependence of the scaling pattern of the annual mean SAT on GHGs emission scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) and the causes of that dependence using the Model for Interdisciplinary research on Climate 5 developed by Japanese research community. In particular, we focused on the relationships of the dependency with effects of aerosols and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. We found significant dependencies of the scaling pattern on emission scenarios at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, with differences of >15 % over parts of East Asia, North America, and Europe. Impact researchers should take into account those dependencies that seriously affect their research. The mid-latitude dependence is caused by differences in sulfate aerosol emissions per 1 K increase in the global mean SAT, and the high-latitude dependence is mainly caused by nonlinear responses of sea ice and ocean heat transport to global warming. Long-term trends in land-use and land-cover changes did not significantly affect the scaling pattern of annual mean SAT, but they might have an effect at different timescales.
AB - To preserve consistency among developed emission scenarios, the scenarios used in climate modeling, and the climate scenarios available for impact research, the pattern scaling technique is useful technique. The basic assumption of pattern scaling is that the spatial response pattern per 1 K increase in the global mean surface air temperature (SAT) (scaling pattern) is the same among emission scenarios, but this assumption requires further validation. We therefore investigated the dependence of the scaling pattern of the annual mean SAT on GHGs emission scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) and the causes of that dependence using the Model for Interdisciplinary research on Climate 5 developed by Japanese research community. In particular, we focused on the relationships of the dependency with effects of aerosols and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. We found significant dependencies of the scaling pattern on emission scenarios at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, with differences of >15 % over parts of East Asia, North America, and Europe. Impact researchers should take into account those dependencies that seriously affect their research. The mid-latitude dependence is caused by differences in sulfate aerosol emissions per 1 K increase in the global mean SAT, and the high-latitude dependence is mainly caused by nonlinear responses of sea ice and ocean heat transport to global warming. Long-term trends in land-use and land-cover changes did not significantly affect the scaling pattern of annual mean SAT, but they might have an effect at different timescales.
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84862794707&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-012-0430-8
DO - 10.1007/s10584-012-0430-8
M3 - Article
VL - 112
SP - 535
EP - 546
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
SN - 0165-0009
IS - 2
ER -