Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

Tomoki Nakaya, Katsumi Nakase, Ken Osaka

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)313-336
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of Geographical Systems
Volume7
Issue number3-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2005

Fingerprint

acquired immune deficiency syndrome
human immunodeficiency virus
surveillance
AIDS
Japan
modeling
projection
geographical variation
estimation method
inclusion
planning

Keywords

  • Epidemic model
  • GWR
  • HIV/AIDS surveillance
  • Japan
  • Spatial diffusion

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development

Cite this

Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance. / Nakaya, Tomoki; Nakase, Katsumi; Osaka, Ken.

In: Journal of Geographical Systems, Vol. 7, No. 3-4, 12.2005, p. 313-336.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Nakaya, Tomoki ; Nakase, Katsumi ; Osaka, Ken. / Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance. In: Journal of Geographical Systems. 2005 ; Vol. 7, No. 3-4. pp. 313-336.
@article{ff3a08d543594d63914683c666685550,
title = "Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance",
abstract = "In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.",
keywords = "Epidemic model, GWR, HIV/AIDS surveillance, Japan, Spatial diffusion",
author = "Tomoki Nakaya and Katsumi Nakase and Ken Osaka",
year = "2005",
month = "12",
doi = "10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
pages = "313--336",
journal = "Journal of Geographical Systems",
issn = "1435-5930",
publisher = "Springer Verlag",
number = "3-4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Spatio-temporal modelling of the HIV epidemic in Japan based on the national HIV/AIDS surveillance

AU - Nakaya, Tomoki

AU - Nakase, Katsumi

AU - Osaka, Ken

PY - 2005/12

Y1 - 2005/12

N2 - In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.

AB - In this paper, we develop a multiregion epidemic model in order to provide the basic information on local HIV epidemic states in Japan. By considering the previous efforts of national epidemic projections in Japan, we statistically calibrate a model by employing an estimation method that allows the inclusion of geographically varying parameters. Using this model, we present a geographical projection of local epidemics until 2015 by examining geographical variations in future epidemic growth and spatial relationships in HIV transmission. We also discuss the implications of planning preventive measures and improvement in the Japanese HIV/AIDS surveillance system based on analytical results.

KW - Epidemic model

KW - GWR

KW - HIV/AIDS surveillance

KW - Japan

KW - Spatial diffusion

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33644768192&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=33644768192&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3

DO - 10.1007/s10109-005-0008-3

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:33644768192

VL - 7

SP - 313

EP - 336

JO - Journal of Geographical Systems

JF - Journal of Geographical Systems

SN - 1435-5930

IS - 3-4

ER -