TY - GEN
T1 - Short-term prediction of power fluctuations in photovoltaic systems using chaos theory
AU - Shibata, Kohei
AU - Takahashi, Akiko
AU - Imai, Jim
AU - Funabiki, Shigeyuki
PY - 2013/12/1
Y1 - 2013/12/1
N2 - This paper proposes a novel short-term prediction method for power fluctuations in a photovoltaic (PV) system based on chaos theory. A data vector composed of n data points is embedded in an n-dimensional vector space by Takens' embedding theorem. The time delay is determined at 300 s by autocorrelation analysis, and the embedding dimension is determined to be 5 by the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm. Next, the PV power in the near feature is predicted by using the local fuzzy reconstruction method. A simulation of the smoothing control of power in a PV system with an energy storage device consisting of electric double layer capacitors (EDLCs) is carried out. The largest reduction in the EDLCs' capacity is 3.81 kJ, which can be achieved on a clear day.
AB - This paper proposes a novel short-term prediction method for power fluctuations in a photovoltaic (PV) system based on chaos theory. A data vector composed of n data points is embedded in an n-dimensional vector space by Takens' embedding theorem. The time delay is determined at 300 s by autocorrelation analysis, and the embedding dimension is determined to be 5 by the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm. Next, the PV power in the near feature is predicted by using the local fuzzy reconstruction method. A simulation of the smoothing control of power in a PV system with an energy storage device consisting of electric double layer capacitors (EDLCs) is carried out. The largest reduction in the EDLCs' capacity is 3.81 kJ, which can be achieved on a clear day.
KW - chaos
KW - power smoothing
KW - prediction method
KW - solar power generation
KW - supercapacitors
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84893196275&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84893196275&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672364
DO - 10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672364
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84893196275
SN - 9781479913039
T3 - IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
BT - 2013 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PES 2013
T2 - 2013 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PES 2013
Y2 - 21 July 2013 through 25 July 2013
ER -