Short-term prediction of power fluctuations in photovoltaic systems using chaos theory

Kohei Shibata, Akiko Takahashi, Jim Imai, Shigeyuki Funabiki

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel short-term prediction method for power fluctuations in a photovoltaic (PV) system based on chaos theory. A data vector composed of n data points is embedded in an n-dimensional vector space by Takens' embedding theorem. The time delay is determined at 300 s by autocorrelation analysis, and the embedding dimension is determined to be 5 by the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm. Next, the PV power in the near feature is predicted by using the local fuzzy reconstruction method. A simulation of the smoothing control of power in a PV system with an energy storage device consisting of electric double layer capacitors (EDLCs) is carried out. The largest reduction in the EDLCs' capacity is 3.81 kJ, which can be achieved on a clear day.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2013 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PES 2013
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2013
Event2013 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PES 2013 - Vancouver, BC, Canada
Duration: Jul 21 2013Jul 25 2013

Publication series

NameIEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
ISSN (Print)1944-9925
ISSN (Electronic)1944-9933

Other

Other2013 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PES 2013
CountryCanada
CityVancouver, BC
Period7/21/137/25/13

Keywords

  • chaos
  • power smoothing
  • prediction method
  • solar power generation
  • supercapacitors

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Nuclear Energy and Engineering
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Short-term prediction of power fluctuations in photovoltaic systems using chaos theory'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Shibata, K., Takahashi, A., Imai, J., & Funabiki, S. (2013). Short-term prediction of power fluctuations in photovoltaic systems using chaos theory. In 2013 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PES 2013 [6672364] (IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting). https://doi.org/10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672364