Risk analysis of the re-emergence of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Japan using a stochastic transmission model

Tomoyuki Bitoh, Kaoru Fueda, Hiroshi Ohmae, Mamoru Watanabe, Hirofumi Ishikawa

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives This study analyzed the risk of infection with Plasmodium vivax in local residents through a stochastic simulation in which an infected tourist, local resident, or immigrants from an endemic area would visit Himi-shi, Toyama prefecture, which is a formerly endemic area in Japan. Methods In Toyama, the habitats of Anopheles sinensis, which can transmit P. vivax, have been examined previously. We constructed a stochastic model of P. vivax transmission that can handle small numbers of infected persons and infected mosquitoes. The seasonal fluctuation in the numbers of captured An. sinensis was taken into account in the model. Results Ten thousand trial simulations were carried out stochastically with a range of human blood indexes (HBI) of 1-10% for a range of months (June-September). The simulation results for a realistic assumption of a 1% HBI showed that the risk of infection for local residents was low (below 1%) except for the immigrants scenario. Conclusions The risk of infection among local residents (second cycle) was estimated to be very low for all situations. Therefore, there is little possibility for P. vivax infection to become established in this area of Japan.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)171-177
Number of pages7
JournalEnvironmental Health and Preventive Medicine
Volume16
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 1 2011

Keywords

  • Anopheles sinensis
  • Plasmodium vivax
  • Re-emergence
  • Stochastic simulation
  • Toyama

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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