Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Hideo Shiogama; Masahiro Watanabe; Masakazu Yoshimori; Tokuta Yokohata; Tomoo Ogura; James D. Annan; Julia C. Hargreaves; Manabu Abe; Youichi Kamae; Ryouta O'ishi; Rei Nobui; Seita Emori; Toru Nozawa; Ayako Abe-Ouchi; Masahide Kimoto

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, Tomoo Ogura, James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Youichi Kamae, Ryouta O'ishi, Rei Nobui, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

42 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2. 2-3. 2 °C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	3041-3056
Number of pages	16
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	39
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x
Publication status	Published - Nov 2012
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Climate sensitivity
Cloud feedback
General circulation model
Metrics
Perturbed physics ensemble

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Atmospheric Science

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x

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Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Yoshimori, M., Yokohata, T., Ogura, T., Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., Abe, M., Kamae, Y., O'ishi, R., Nobui, R., Emori, S., Nozawa, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., & Kimoto, M. (2012). Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity. Climate Dynamics, 39(12), 3041-3056. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections : Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity. / Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yokohata, Tokuta; Ogura, Tomoo; Annan, James D.; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Abe, Manabu; Kamae, Youichi; O'ishi, Ryouta; Nobui, Rei; Emori, Seita; Nozawa, Toru; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kimoto, Masahide.

In: Climate Dynamics, Vol. 39, No. 12, 11.2012, p. 3041-3056.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Shiogama, H, Watanabe, M, Yoshimori, M, Yokohata, T, Ogura, T, Annan, JD, Hargreaves, JC, Abe, M, Kamae, Y, O'ishi, R, Nobui, R, Emori, S, Nozawa, T, Abe-Ouchi, A & Kimoto, M 2012, 'Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity', Climate Dynamics, vol. 39, no. 12, pp. 3041-3056. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x

Shiogama, Hideo ; Watanabe, Masahiro ; Yoshimori, Masakazu ; Yokohata, Tokuta ; Ogura, Tomoo ; Annan, James D. ; Hargreaves, Julia C. ; Abe, Manabu ; Kamae, Youichi ; O'ishi, Ryouta ; Nobui, Rei ; Emori, Seita ; Nozawa, Toru ; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako ; Kimoto, Masahide. / Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections : Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity. In: Climate Dynamics. 2012 ; Vol. 39, No. 12. pp. 3041-3056.

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abstract = "In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2. 2-3. 2 °C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.",

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author = "Hideo Shiogama and Masahiro Watanabe and Masakazu Yoshimori and Tokuta Yokohata and Tomoo Ogura and Annan, {James D.} and Hargreaves, {Julia C.} and Manabu Abe and Youichi Kamae and Ryouta O'ishi and Rei Nobui and Seita Emori and Toru Nozawa and Ayako Abe-Ouchi and Masahide Kimoto",

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T2 - Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity

AU - Shiogama, Hideo

AU - Watanabe, Masahiro

AU - Yoshimori, Masakazu

AU - Yokohata, Tokuta

AU - Ogura, Tomoo

AU - Annan, James D.

AU - Hargreaves, Julia C.

AU - Abe, Manabu

AU - Kamae, Youichi

AU - O'ishi, Ryouta

AU - Nobui, Rei

AU - Emori, Seita

AU - Nozawa, Toru

AU - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

AU - Kimoto, Masahide

N1 - Funding Information: We appreciate the useful comments of K. Takata, M. Chikira, T. Takemura, W. J. Ingram, M. R. Allen, M. Webb, S. Corti and reviewers. This work was supported by the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st century for Scientific Research (Grant-in-Aid 23310014 and 23340137) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan; by the Global Environment Research Fund (S-5) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan; and by the Mitsui & Co., Ltd., Environment Fund. The Earth Simulator at JAMSTEC, NEC SX-8R at NIES, NEC SX-8R/9 at Osaka University, and HA8000 at the University of Tokyo were employed to perform the model simulations.

PY - 2012/11

Y1 - 2012/11

N2 - In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2. 2-3. 2 °C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.

AB - In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2. 2-3. 2 °C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.

KW - Climate sensitivity

KW - Cloud feedback

KW - General circulation model

KW - Metrics

KW - Perturbed physics ensemble

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Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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