Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, Tomoo Ogura, James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Youichi Kamae, Ryouta O'ishi, Rei Nobui, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

36 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2. 2-3. 2 °C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3041-3056
Number of pages16
JournalClimate Dynamics
Volume39
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 1 2012
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Climate sensitivity
  • Cloud feedback
  • General circulation model
  • Metrics
  • Perturbed physics ensemble

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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    Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Yoshimori, M., Yokohata, T., Ogura, T., Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., Abe, M., Kamae, Y., O'ishi, R., Nobui, R., Emori, S., Nozawa, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., & Kimoto, M. (2012). Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: Experimental design and results: Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity. Climate Dynamics, 39(12), 3041-3056. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x