TY - GEN
T1 - Numerical analysis and visualization of uncertainty effects in thermo-hydro-mechanical coupled processes in a hot-dry-rock geothermal reservoir
AU - Watanabe, Norihiro
AU - Zehner, Björn
AU - Wang, Wenqing
AU - McDermott, Christopher I.
AU - Taniguchi, Takeo
AU - Kolditz, Olaf
PY - 2011/12/1
Y1 - 2011/12/1
N2 - We present an uncertainty analysis of thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) coupled processes in a typical hot-dry-rock reservoir in crystalline rock. The conceptual model is an equivalent porous media approach which is adequate for available data from the Urach Spa and Falkenberg sites (Germany). The finite element method (FEM) is used for the numerical analysis or fully coupled THM processes, including thermal water flow, advective-diffusive heat transport, and thermo-poro-elasticity. Reservoir parameters are considered as spatial random variables and their realizations are generated using conditional Gaussian simulation. The results show the influence of parameter ranges on the reservoir evolution during long-term heat extraction taking into account fully coupled THM processes. We found that the most significant factors are permeability and heat capacity variations. The study demonstrates the importance of taking parameter uncertainties into account for geothermal reservoir evaluation in order to assess the predictability of numerical modelling.
AB - We present an uncertainty analysis of thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) coupled processes in a typical hot-dry-rock reservoir in crystalline rock. The conceptual model is an equivalent porous media approach which is adequate for available data from the Urach Spa and Falkenberg sites (Germany). The finite element method (FEM) is used for the numerical analysis or fully coupled THM processes, including thermal water flow, advective-diffusive heat transport, and thermo-poro-elasticity. Reservoir parameters are considered as spatial random variables and their realizations are generated using conditional Gaussian simulation. The results show the influence of parameter ranges on the reservoir evolution during long-term heat extraction taking into account fully coupled THM processes. We found that the most significant factors are permeability and heat capacity variations. The study demonstrates the importance of taking parameter uncertainties into account for geothermal reservoir evaluation in order to assess the predictability of numerical modelling.
KW - Hot-dry-rock geothermal reservoir
KW - Monte-Carlo simulation
KW - Thermo-hydro- mechanical coupled processes
KW - Uncertainty analysis
KW - Visualization
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M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84860548585
SN - 9781907161155
T3 - IAHS-AISH Publication
SP - 57
EP - 62
BT - Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling
T2 - 7th International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: Managing Groundwater and the Environment, ModelCARE 2009
Y2 - 20 September 2009 through 23 September 2009
ER -