Future climate change

Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability

Lal Murari, Toru Nozawa, S. Emori, H. Harasawa, K. Takahashi, M. Kimoto, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Nakajima, T. Takemura, A. Numaguti

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

101 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The broad climatological features associated with the Asian monsoon circulation, including its mean state and intraseasonal and interannual variability over the Indian subcontinent, as simulated in the CCSR/NIES coupled A-O GCM in its control experiment are presented in this paper. The model reproduces the seasonal cycle as well as basic observed patterns of key climatic parameters, in spite of some limitations in simulation of the monsoon rainfall. While the seasonality in rainfall over the region is well simulated and the simulated area-averaged monsoon rainfall is only marginally higher than the observed rainfall, the peak rainfall is simulated to be about two-thirds of the observed precipitation intensity over central India. The transient experiments performed with the model following the four SRES 'Marker' emission scenarios, which include revised trends for all the principal anthropogenic forcing agents for the future, suggest an annual mean area-averaged surface warming over the Indian subcontinent to range between 3.5 and 5.5°C over the region during 2080s. During winter, India may experience between 5 and 25% decline in rainfall. The decline in wintertime-rainfall over India is likely to be significant and may lead to droughts during the dry summer months. Only a 10 to 15% increase is projected in area-averaged summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. The date of onset of summer monsoon over India could become more variable in future.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1196-1207
Number of pages12
JournalCurrent Science
Volume81
Issue number9
Publication statusPublished - Nov 10 2001
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Climate Change
India
climate change
rain
summer
Droughts
surface area
drought
winter

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

Murari, L., Nozawa, T., Emori, S., Harasawa, H., Takahashi, K., Kimoto, M., ... Numaguti, A. (2001). Future climate change: Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability. Current Science, 81(9), 1196-1207.

Future climate change : Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability. / Murari, Lal; Nozawa, Toru; Emori, S.; Harasawa, H.; Takahashi, K.; Kimoto, M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Nakajima, T.; Takemura, T.; Numaguti, A.

In: Current Science, Vol. 81, No. 9, 10.11.2001, p. 1196-1207.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Murari, L, Nozawa, T, Emori, S, Harasawa, H, Takahashi, K, Kimoto, M, Abe-Ouchi, A, Nakajima, T, Takemura, T & Numaguti, A 2001, 'Future climate change: Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability', Current Science, vol. 81, no. 9, pp. 1196-1207.
Murari L, Nozawa T, Emori S, Harasawa H, Takahashi K, Kimoto M et al. Future climate change: Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability. Current Science. 2001 Nov 10;81(9):1196-1207.
Murari, Lal ; Nozawa, Toru ; Emori, S. ; Harasawa, H. ; Takahashi, K. ; Kimoto, M. ; Abe-Ouchi, A. ; Nakajima, T. ; Takemura, T. ; Numaguti, A. / Future climate change : Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability. In: Current Science. 2001 ; Vol. 81, No. 9. pp. 1196-1207.
@article{65b0f5f394374dff835eb8fe198be723,
title = "Future climate change: Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability",
abstract = "The broad climatological features associated with the Asian monsoon circulation, including its mean state and intraseasonal and interannual variability over the Indian subcontinent, as simulated in the CCSR/NIES coupled A-O GCM in its control experiment are presented in this paper. The model reproduces the seasonal cycle as well as basic observed patterns of key climatic parameters, in spite of some limitations in simulation of the monsoon rainfall. While the seasonality in rainfall over the region is well simulated and the simulated area-averaged monsoon rainfall is only marginally higher than the observed rainfall, the peak rainfall is simulated to be about two-thirds of the observed precipitation intensity over central India. The transient experiments performed with the model following the four SRES 'Marker' emission scenarios, which include revised trends for all the principal anthropogenic forcing agents for the future, suggest an annual mean area-averaged surface warming over the Indian subcontinent to range between 3.5 and 5.5°C over the region during 2080s. During winter, India may experience between 5 and 25{\%} decline in rainfall. The decline in wintertime-rainfall over India is likely to be significant and may lead to droughts during the dry summer months. Only a 10 to 15{\%} increase is projected in area-averaged summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. The date of onset of summer monsoon over India could become more variable in future.",
author = "Lal Murari and Toru Nozawa and S. Emori and H. Harasawa and K. Takahashi and M. Kimoto and A. Abe-Ouchi and T. Nakajima and T. Takemura and A. Numaguti",
year = "2001",
month = "11",
day = "10",
language = "English",
volume = "81",
pages = "1196--1207",
journal = "Current Science",
issn = "0011-3891",
publisher = "Indian Academy of Sciences",
number = "9",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future climate change

T2 - Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability

AU - Murari, Lal

AU - Nozawa, Toru

AU - Emori, S.

AU - Harasawa, H.

AU - Takahashi, K.

AU - Kimoto, M.

AU - Abe-Ouchi, A.

AU - Nakajima, T.

AU - Takemura, T.

AU - Numaguti, A.

PY - 2001/11/10

Y1 - 2001/11/10

N2 - The broad climatological features associated with the Asian monsoon circulation, including its mean state and intraseasonal and interannual variability over the Indian subcontinent, as simulated in the CCSR/NIES coupled A-O GCM in its control experiment are presented in this paper. The model reproduces the seasonal cycle as well as basic observed patterns of key climatic parameters, in spite of some limitations in simulation of the monsoon rainfall. While the seasonality in rainfall over the region is well simulated and the simulated area-averaged monsoon rainfall is only marginally higher than the observed rainfall, the peak rainfall is simulated to be about two-thirds of the observed precipitation intensity over central India. The transient experiments performed with the model following the four SRES 'Marker' emission scenarios, which include revised trends for all the principal anthropogenic forcing agents for the future, suggest an annual mean area-averaged surface warming over the Indian subcontinent to range between 3.5 and 5.5°C over the region during 2080s. During winter, India may experience between 5 and 25% decline in rainfall. The decline in wintertime-rainfall over India is likely to be significant and may lead to droughts during the dry summer months. Only a 10 to 15% increase is projected in area-averaged summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. The date of onset of summer monsoon over India could become more variable in future.

AB - The broad climatological features associated with the Asian monsoon circulation, including its mean state and intraseasonal and interannual variability over the Indian subcontinent, as simulated in the CCSR/NIES coupled A-O GCM in its control experiment are presented in this paper. The model reproduces the seasonal cycle as well as basic observed patterns of key climatic parameters, in spite of some limitations in simulation of the monsoon rainfall. While the seasonality in rainfall over the region is well simulated and the simulated area-averaged monsoon rainfall is only marginally higher than the observed rainfall, the peak rainfall is simulated to be about two-thirds of the observed precipitation intensity over central India. The transient experiments performed with the model following the four SRES 'Marker' emission scenarios, which include revised trends for all the principal anthropogenic forcing agents for the future, suggest an annual mean area-averaged surface warming over the Indian subcontinent to range between 3.5 and 5.5°C over the region during 2080s. During winter, India may experience between 5 and 25% decline in rainfall. The decline in wintertime-rainfall over India is likely to be significant and may lead to droughts during the dry summer months. Only a 10 to 15% increase is projected in area-averaged summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. The date of onset of summer monsoon over India could become more variable in future.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0038435133&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0038435133&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

VL - 81

SP - 1196

EP - 1207

JO - Current Science

JF - Current Science

SN - 0011-3891

IS - 9

ER -