Abstract
We consider future changes in tropospheric ozone based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are new emission and concentration scenarios for the 5th coupled model intercomparison project. In contrast to the SRES scenarios, all the RCP scenarios assume an emission reduction of NOx by the late 21st Century that has the potential to achieve tropospheric ozone reduction. However, increasing radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases and changes in CH4 concentration also contribute to differences in the tropospheric ozone distribution among RCP scenarios. In the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, assuming the stabilization of RF, the increase in tropospheric ozone due to enhanced residual circulation is cancelled out by the ozone reduction due to ozone precursor reductions. In contrast, in the RCP8.5, assuming increasing RF even after 2100, further enhanced residual circulation and significant increase in CH4 cause a dramatic increase in tropospheric ozone.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | L05801 |
| Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume | 38 |
| Issue number | 5 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Mar 16 2011 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- Geophysics
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Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). / Kawase, Hiroaki; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Sudo, Kengo; Nozawa, Toru.
In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, No. 5, L05801, 16.03.2011.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
AU - Kawase, Hiroaki
AU - Nagashima, Tatsuya
AU - Sudo, Kengo
AU - Nozawa, Toru
PY - 2011/3/16
Y1 - 2011/3/16
N2 - We consider future changes in tropospheric ozone based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are new emission and concentration scenarios for the 5th coupled model intercomparison project. In contrast to the SRES scenarios, all the RCP scenarios assume an emission reduction of NOx by the late 21st Century that has the potential to achieve tropospheric ozone reduction. However, increasing radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases and changes in CH4 concentration also contribute to differences in the tropospheric ozone distribution among RCP scenarios. In the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, assuming the stabilization of RF, the increase in tropospheric ozone due to enhanced residual circulation is cancelled out by the ozone reduction due to ozone precursor reductions. In contrast, in the RCP8.5, assuming increasing RF even after 2100, further enhanced residual circulation and significant increase in CH4 cause a dramatic increase in tropospheric ozone.
AB - We consider future changes in tropospheric ozone based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are new emission and concentration scenarios for the 5th coupled model intercomparison project. In contrast to the SRES scenarios, all the RCP scenarios assume an emission reduction of NOx by the late 21st Century that has the potential to achieve tropospheric ozone reduction. However, increasing radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases and changes in CH4 concentration also contribute to differences in the tropospheric ozone distribution among RCP scenarios. In the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, assuming the stabilization of RF, the increase in tropospheric ozone due to enhanced residual circulation is cancelled out by the ozone reduction due to ozone precursor reductions. In contrast, in the RCP8.5, assuming increasing RF even after 2100, further enhanced residual circulation and significant increase in CH4 cause a dramatic increase in tropospheric ozone.
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79952172008&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2010GL046402
DO - 10.1029/2010GL046402
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:79952172008
VL - 38
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
SN - 0094-8276
IS - 5
M1 - L05801
ER -