Flood simulation considering probability of heavy rains and uncertainty of soil properties of earth-fill dams

Haruna Nagao, Shin Ichi Nishimura, Kazunori Fujisawa, Takayuki Shuku

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Decrepit earth-fill dams ought to be improved in order to mitigate natural disasters. Since there is a recent demand for low-cost improvements, the development of a design method for optimum improvement work at a low cost is the final objective of this research. As a basic step, the risk to earth fills during heavy rains is evaluated here. The rainfall intensity and the variability of the numerous soil parameters of the earth-fills related to soil erosion are dealt with as probabilistic parameters. When the maximum overflow head on a spillway bed becomes greater than the design overflow head, overflow occurs. The peak overflow head, hp, is determined within 72 hours of the rainfall, and the various rainfall patterns are tested by the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the statistical values of the parameters for the soil erosion are assumed in this research, and the variability of the discharge hydrographs are derived from the values. The discharge hydrographs are applied for the flood simulation as input waves. The submerged area and the head of the flood discharge in the downstream area can be predicted. Finally, from the estimated probability of overflow, and the statistical values of the submerged area and the head of the flood discharge, the risk to the downstream area of the earth-fill dams can be evaluated.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication5th China-Japan Geotechnical Symposium
PublisherPeople's Communications Press
Pages298-303
Number of pages6
ISBN (Print)9787114105821
Publication statusPublished - Jan 1 2013
Event5th China-Japan Geotechnical Symposium: New Advances in Geotechnical Engineering - Chengdu, China
Duration: May 18 2013May 19 2013

Publication series

Name5th China-Japan Geotechnical Symposium

Other

Other5th China-Japan Geotechnical Symposium: New Advances in Geotechnical Engineering
CountryChina
CityChengdu
Period5/18/135/19/13

Keywords

  • Earth-fill dam
  • Flood simulation
  • Overflow
  • Rainfall model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology

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  • Cite this

    Nagao, H., Nishimura, S. I., Fujisawa, K., & Shuku, T. (2013). Flood simulation considering probability of heavy rains and uncertainty of soil properties of earth-fill dams. In 5th China-Japan Geotechnical Symposium (pp. 298-303). (5th China-Japan Geotechnical Symposium). People's Communications Press.