### Abstract

A method for evaluating the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam over the next 50 years is presented through the use of a geostatistical method for the measured values from cone penetration tests (CPTs). In particular, this paper discusses a new procedure for evaluating the liquefaction probability based on CPTs. Although the fines content, F_{c}, and the N-value are required in the Japanese standards to evaluate the liquefaction risk, the number of test data is not enough for the statistical modeling. Herein, F_{c} and the N-value are derived directly from CPTs. The statistical modeling procedure for F_{c} and the N-value is the unique point of this study. Since CPTs can be conducted with short intervals, especially in the horizontal direction, the geostatistical parameters can be determined, and the geostatistical simulation method is applicable for evaluating the liquefaction probability. In addition, since the frequency of the seismic load at the studied site will affect the liquefaction probability, the seismic hazard should be evaluated properly. An illustrative example, assessing the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam in Japan, is presented to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method. Finally, the spatial average of the liquefaction probability of the dam over the next 50 years is calculated. The proposed procedure is confirmed to work well for actual design problems.

Original language | English |
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Journal | Soils and Foundations |

DOIs | |

Publication status | Accepted/In press - Jan 1 2020 |

### Fingerprint

### Keywords

- Cone penetration test
- Geostatistics
- Liquefaction
- Seismic hazard
- Spatial variability

### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Civil and Structural Engineering
- Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology

### Cite this

*Soils and Foundations*. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sandf.2019.08.002

**Evaluation of liquefaction probability of earth-fill dam over next 50 years using geostatistical method based on CPT.** / Imaide, Kazunari; Nishimura, Shin ichi; Shibata, Toshifumi; Shuku, Takayuki; Murakami, Akira; Fujisawa, Kazunori.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

*Soils and Foundations*. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sandf.2019.08.002

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Evaluation of liquefaction probability of earth-fill dam over next 50 years using geostatistical method based on CPT

AU - Imaide, Kazunari

AU - Nishimura, Shin ichi

AU - Shibata, Toshifumi

AU - Shuku, Takayuki

AU - Murakami, Akira

AU - Fujisawa, Kazunori

PY - 2020/1/1

Y1 - 2020/1/1

N2 - A method for evaluating the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam over the next 50 years is presented through the use of a geostatistical method for the measured values from cone penetration tests (CPTs). In particular, this paper discusses a new procedure for evaluating the liquefaction probability based on CPTs. Although the fines content, Fc, and the N-value are required in the Japanese standards to evaluate the liquefaction risk, the number of test data is not enough for the statistical modeling. Herein, Fc and the N-value are derived directly from CPTs. The statistical modeling procedure for Fc and the N-value is the unique point of this study. Since CPTs can be conducted with short intervals, especially in the horizontal direction, the geostatistical parameters can be determined, and the geostatistical simulation method is applicable for evaluating the liquefaction probability. In addition, since the frequency of the seismic load at the studied site will affect the liquefaction probability, the seismic hazard should be evaluated properly. An illustrative example, assessing the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam in Japan, is presented to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method. Finally, the spatial average of the liquefaction probability of the dam over the next 50 years is calculated. The proposed procedure is confirmed to work well for actual design problems.

AB - A method for evaluating the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam over the next 50 years is presented through the use of a geostatistical method for the measured values from cone penetration tests (CPTs). In particular, this paper discusses a new procedure for evaluating the liquefaction probability based on CPTs. Although the fines content, Fc, and the N-value are required in the Japanese standards to evaluate the liquefaction risk, the number of test data is not enough for the statistical modeling. Herein, Fc and the N-value are derived directly from CPTs. The statistical modeling procedure for Fc and the N-value is the unique point of this study. Since CPTs can be conducted with short intervals, especially in the horizontal direction, the geostatistical parameters can be determined, and the geostatistical simulation method is applicable for evaluating the liquefaction probability. In addition, since the frequency of the seismic load at the studied site will affect the liquefaction probability, the seismic hazard should be evaluated properly. An illustrative example, assessing the liquefaction probability of an earth-fill dam in Japan, is presented to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method. Finally, the spatial average of the liquefaction probability of the dam over the next 50 years is calculated. The proposed procedure is confirmed to work well for actual design problems.

KW - Cone penetration test

KW - Geostatistics

KW - Liquefaction

KW - Seismic hazard

KW - Spatial variability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85077361218&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85077361218&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.sandf.2019.08.002

DO - 10.1016/j.sandf.2019.08.002

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85077361218

JO - Soils and Foundations

JF - Soils and Foundations

SN - 0038-0806

ER -