Empirical evaluation of cost overrun prediction with imbalance data

Masateru Tsunoda; Akito Monden; Jun Ichiro Shibata; Ken Ichi Matsumoto

doi:10.1109/ICIS.2011.71

Empirical evaluation of cost overrun prediction with imbalance data

Masateru Tsunoda, Akito Monden, Jun Ichiro Shibata, Ken Ichi Matsumoto

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To prevent cost overrun of software projects, it is necessary for project managers to identify projects which have high risk of cost overrun in the early phase. So far, discriminant methods such as linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been used to predict cost overrun projects. However, accuracy of discriminant methods often becomes low when a dataset used for predict is imbalanced, i.e. there exists a large difference between the number of cost overrun projects and non cost overrun projects. In this paper, we compared accuracy of linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, classification tree, Mahalanobis-Taguchi method, and collaborative filtering, by changing the percentage of cost overrun projects in the dataset. The result showed that collaborative filtering was highest accuracy among five methods. When the number of cost overrun projects and non cost overrun was balanced in the dataset, linear discriminant analysis was second highest accuracy, and when it was not balanced, Mahalanobis-Taguchi method was second highest among five methods.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011
Pages	415-420
Number of pages	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIS.2011.71
Publication status	Published - 2011
Externally published	Yes
Event	2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011 - Sanya, Hainan Island, China Duration: May 16 2011 → May 18 2011

Publication series

Name	Proceedings - 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011

Other

Other	2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011
Country	China
City	Sanya, Hainan Island
Period	5/16/11 → 5/18/11

Keywords

Collaborative Filtering
Mahalanobis-Taguchi method
biased data
failure prone project
risk management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Computational Theory and Mathematics
Information Systems

Access to Document

10.1109/ICIS.2011.71

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Cite this

Tsunoda, M., Monden, A., Shibata, J. I., & Matsumoto, K. I. (2011). Empirical evaluation of cost overrun prediction with imbalance data. In 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011 (pp. 415-420). [6086505] (Proceedings - 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIS.2011.71

Empirical evaluation of cost overrun prediction with imbalance data. / Tsunoda, Masateru; Monden, Akito; Shibata, Jun Ichiro; Matsumoto, Ken Ichi.

2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011. 2011. p. 415-420 6086505 (Proceedings - 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

Tsunoda, M, Monden, A, Shibata, JI & Matsumoto, KI 2011, Empirical evaluation of cost overrun prediction with imbalance data. in 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011., 6086505, Proceedings - 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011, pp. 415-420, 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011, Sanya, Hainan Island, China, 5/16/11. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIS.2011.71

Tsunoda M, Monden A, Shibata JI, Matsumoto KI. Empirical evaluation of cost overrun prediction with imbalance data. In 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011. 2011. p. 415-420. 6086505. (Proceedings - 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIS.2011.71

Tsunoda, Masateru ; Monden, Akito ; Shibata, Jun Ichiro ; Matsumoto, Ken Ichi. / Empirical evaluation of cost overrun prediction with imbalance data. 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011. 2011. pp. 415-420 (Proceedings - 2011 10th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, ICIS 2011).

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