Effect of climate change on nutrient discharge in a coastal area, western Japan

Yuta Shimizu, Shin Ichi Onodera, Mitsuyo Saito

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of climate change on nitrogen and phosphorus discharges from a watershed in western Japan. Numerical simulations for a 30-year period (1978-2007) demonstrate a decrease in the annual precipitation as well as in the loads of nitrogen and phosphorus, over the study period. Nutrient fluxes were estimated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The estimated phosphorus flux is more highly correlated with precipitation than the nitrogen flux. The results suggest a high correlation between phosphorus and discharge, but during the high precipitation years, phosphorus loads have decreased. A sensitivity analysis of parameters for phosphorus discharge showed that the most sensitive parameter is the support practice factor. Consequently, phosphorus flux could decrease from the Asahi River watershed in the future, because precipitation and flood events have decreased and so has the driving force for soil erosion, which is the primary source of the nutrients.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationWater Quality
Subtitle of host publicationCurrent Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts
Pages172-177
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2011
Externally publishedYes
EventSymposium HS04 on Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts, Held During the 25th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, IUGG 2011 - Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Duration: Jun 28 2011Jul 7 2011

Publication series

NameIAHS-AISH Publication
Volume348
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Other

OtherSymposium HS04 on Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts, Held During the 25th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, IUGG 2011
CountryAustralia
CityMelbourne, VIC
Period6/28/117/7/11

Keywords

  • Nutrient load
  • Precipitation
  • SWAT model
  • Western Japan

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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  • Cite this

    Shimizu, Y., Onodera, S. I., & Saito, M. (2011). Effect of climate change on nutrient discharge in a coastal area, western Japan. In Water Quality: Current Trends and Expected Climate Change Impacts (pp. 172-177). (IAHS-AISH Publication; Vol. 348).