Dependence of precipitation scaling patterns on emission scenarios for representative concentration pathways

Yasuhiro Ishizaki, Hideo Shiogama, Seita Emori, Tokuta Yokohata, Toru Nozawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tatsuya Nagashima

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Pattern scaling is an efficient way to generate projections of regional climate change for various emission scenarios. This approach assumes that the spatial pattern of changes per degree of global warming (scaling pattern) is the same among emission scenarios. The hypothesis was tested for the scaling pattern of precipitation by focusing on the scenario dependence of aerosol scaling patterns. The scenario dependence of aerosol scaling patterns induced the scenario dependence of the surface shortwave radiation scaling pattern. The scenario dependence of the surface shortwave radiation scaling pattern over the ocean tended to induce the scenario dependence of evaporation scaling patterns. The scenario dependence of evaporation scaling patterns led to the scenario dependence of precipitation scaling patterns locally and downwind. Contrariwise, when the scenario dependence of aerosol scaling patterns occurred over land, the scenario dependence of surface shortwave radiation scaling patterns induced the scenario dependence of the scaling patterns of evaporation, surface longwave radiation, and sensible heat. Consequently, the scenario dependence of evaporation scaling patterns was smaller over land, and the scenario dependence of precipitation scaling patterns tended to be insignificant. Moreover, the scenario dependence of the southern annular mode and polar amplification caused some of the scenario dependence of precipitation scaling patterns. In this study, only one global climate mode was analyzed. In addition, sensitivity experiments that remove aerosol emissions from some regions or some kinds of aerosols are ideal to separate the impacts of aerosols. Thus, an analysis of the dependencies of precipitation scaling pattern among global climate models and the sensitivity experiments are required in future work.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)8868-8879
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume26
Issue number22
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2013
Externally publishedYes

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Keywords

  • Climate models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Ishizaki, Y., Shiogama, H., Emori, S., Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Takahashi, K., Ogura, T., Yoshimori, M., & Nagashima, T. (2013). Dependence of precipitation scaling patterns on emission scenarios for representative concentration pathways. Journal of Climate, 26(22), 8868-8879. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00540.1