Clinicopathological factors predicting early and late distant recurrence in estrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer

Background: Most studies analyzing prognostic factors for late relapse have been performed in postmenopausal women who received tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors as adjuvant endocrine therapy for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Methods: A total of 223 patients (108 premenopausal and 115 postmenopausal) with early distant recurrence and 149 patients (62 premenopausal and 87 postmenopausal) with late distant recurrence of ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer who were given their initial treatment between 2000 and 2004 were registered from nine institutions. For each late recurrence patient, approximately two matched control patients without relapse for more than 10 years were selected. Clinicopathological factors and adjuvant therapies were compared among the three groups by menopausal status and age. Results: Factors predicting early recurrence in premenopausal women were large tumor size, high lymph node category and high tumor grade, whereas predictors for late recurrence were large tumor size and high lymph node category. In postmenopausal women under 60 years of age, factors predicting early recurrence were bilateral breast cancer, large tumor size, high lymph node category, low PgR expression and high Ki67 labeling index (LI), while predictors for late recurrence were large tumor size and high lymph node category. On the other hand, in postmenopausal women aged 60 years or older, factors predicting early recurrence were bilateral breast cancer, large tumor size, high lymph node category, high tumor grade, low ER expression and high Ki67 LI, whereas predictors for late recurrence were high lymph node category, low ER expression and short duration of adjuvant endocrine therapy. Conclusion: Predictors of early and late distant recurrence might differ according to menopausal status and age.