An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm-2 radiative forcing

Toshihiko Masui, Kenichi Matsumoto, Yasuaki Hijioka, Tsuguki Kinoshita, Toru Nozawa, Sawako Ishiwatari, Etsushi Kato, P. R. Shukla, Yoshiki Yamagata, Mikiko Kainuma

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Abstract

Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm-2) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO2 and N2O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)59-76
Number of pages18
JournalClimatic Change
Volume109
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 1 2011
Externally publishedYes

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Masui, T., Matsumoto, K., Hijioka, Y., Kinoshita, T., Nozawa, T., Ishiwatari, S., Kato, E., Shukla, P. R., Yamagata, Y., & Kainuma, M. (2011). An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm-2 radiative forcing. Climatic Change, 109(1), 59-76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5