A proposal for setting electric power saving rate to avoid risk of electric power shortage occurrence - Probability evaluation system of electric power shortage occurrence under tight electric power supply

Ikuo Arizono, Yasuhiko Takemoto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Japan has to urgently build a new system for securing electric power supply including renewable energy and for saving electric power. The electricity demand and the electricity supply based on renewable energy are influenced by the weather. Thermal power generation may also be affected by equipment failure. Therefore, plotting of a plan is required to avoid electric power shortage under inaccurate prediction for supply and demand of electricity. In this article, we propose a probability evaluation system to avoid electricity shortage. We also propose a method for setting the electricity saving rate to avoid electricity shortage while maintaining the present level of electricity shortage occurrence risk.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)140-151
Number of pages12
JournalSynthesiology
Volume6
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Fingerprint

electricity
shortage
Electricity
supply
evaluation
renewable energy
electricity supply
demand
Power generation
Japan
present

Keywords

  • Bennett probability inequality
  • Chebychev probability inequality
  • Electric power demand-and-supply balance
  • Electric power shortage probability evaluation system
  • Hoeffding probability inequality

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)
  • General

Cite this

@article{0c5a37f3d3604af0b4527096b302410b,
title = "A proposal for setting electric power saving rate to avoid risk of electric power shortage occurrence - Probability evaluation system of electric power shortage occurrence under tight electric power supply",
abstract = "Japan has to urgently build a new system for securing electric power supply including renewable energy and for saving electric power. The electricity demand and the electricity supply based on renewable energy are influenced by the weather. Thermal power generation may also be affected by equipment failure. Therefore, plotting of a plan is required to avoid electric power shortage under inaccurate prediction for supply and demand of electricity. In this article, we propose a probability evaluation system to avoid electricity shortage. We also propose a method for setting the electricity saving rate to avoid electricity shortage while maintaining the present level of electricity shortage occurrence risk.",
keywords = "Bennett probability inequality, Chebychev probability inequality, Electric power demand-and-supply balance, Electric power shortage probability evaluation system, Hoeffding probability inequality",
author = "Ikuo Arizono and Yasuhiko Takemoto",
year = "2013",
doi = "10.5571/synth.6.140",
language = "English",
volume = "6",
pages = "140--151",
journal = "Synthesiology",
issn = "1883-0978",
publisher = "National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A proposal for setting electric power saving rate to avoid risk of electric power shortage occurrence - Probability evaluation system of electric power shortage occurrence under tight electric power supply

AU - Arizono, Ikuo

AU - Takemoto, Yasuhiko

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Japan has to urgently build a new system for securing electric power supply including renewable energy and for saving electric power. The electricity demand and the electricity supply based on renewable energy are influenced by the weather. Thermal power generation may also be affected by equipment failure. Therefore, plotting of a plan is required to avoid electric power shortage under inaccurate prediction for supply and demand of electricity. In this article, we propose a probability evaluation system to avoid electricity shortage. We also propose a method for setting the electricity saving rate to avoid electricity shortage while maintaining the present level of electricity shortage occurrence risk.

AB - Japan has to urgently build a new system for securing electric power supply including renewable energy and for saving electric power. The electricity demand and the electricity supply based on renewable energy are influenced by the weather. Thermal power generation may also be affected by equipment failure. Therefore, plotting of a plan is required to avoid electric power shortage under inaccurate prediction for supply and demand of electricity. In this article, we propose a probability evaluation system to avoid electricity shortage. We also propose a method for setting the electricity saving rate to avoid electricity shortage while maintaining the present level of electricity shortage occurrence risk.

KW - Bennett probability inequality

KW - Chebychev probability inequality

KW - Electric power demand-and-supply balance

KW - Electric power shortage probability evaluation system

KW - Hoeffding probability inequality

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84889064127&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84889064127&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.5571/synth.6.140

DO - 10.5571/synth.6.140

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84889064127

VL - 6

SP - 140

EP - 151

JO - Synthesiology

JF - Synthesiology

SN - 1883-0978

IS - 3

ER -