A proposal for setting electric power saving rate to avoid risk of electric power shortage occurrence - Probability evaluation system of electric power shortage occurrence under tight electric power supply

Japan has to urgently build a new system for securing electric power supply including renewable energy and for saving electric power. The electricity demand and the electricity supply based on renewable energy are influenced by the weather. Thermal power generation may also be affected by equipment failure. Therefore, plotting of a plan is required to avoid electric power shortage under inaccurate prediction for supply and demand of electricity. In this article, we propose a probability evaluation system to avoid electricity shortage. We also propose a method for setting the electricity saving rate to avoid electricity shortage while maintaining the present level of electricity shortage occurrence risk.